Wednesday, January 27, 2016

EUR recovers a bit but the outlook is still bearish

FOREX forecast 25.01-29.01.2016EUR has started the week with small recovery from Friday's drop, however the future expectetions are for more downside as the ECB is ready to act again in March. If ECB anounces more stimilus i expect the EUR to drop below 1.000 and the process to continue through the rest of the year, reaching 0.96-0.94 area. Daily EUR chart is mixed with some upside potential recovery, but the H4 is definitely bearish and the first resistance is 1.0830, followed by 1.0860 and reversal is possible only above 1.0910. You may sell at first two resistances with no more than 15 pips SL or sell below 1.0800.
GOLD uses 1094.00  as support inside Daily negative Ichimoku and as we are above that support we may attack 1114.00 level which is the next important resistance. Supports are at 1087 and 1076, further drop is unlikely for now, as break above 1135 is also unlikely.
NZD is still trying to stay above 0.6490 as it is inside a H4 negative Ichimoku cloud. For now the Senkou Span B price acts as price limiter at 0.6530. Even if the price level is broken it won't be for long and the price will return back to 0.6500. this process seem to continue for the next 2-3 days.
AUD is in a recovery mode, for now the area 0.7060-0.7080 blocks further upside but once above we shall target 0.7140-50. Fail at either of these two resistance areas will trigger a fresh downside wave.
JPY lost some positions last Friday when some players prefer to take profit. This put the pait into a recovery mode above 118.40. However the recovery is limited by 119.00 and 119.70 resistances. And while the first one seems easy to break i am sure that the second one will not give up so easy. You may sell at the second one in case the first is broken. Support is 117.70.
GBP produced a long legs candle on Weekly, which means the market is confused what to do next. In this situation it is more likely some bears to tae part of their profit which will bring the price to 1.4490-1.4500 again. Further recovery is less possible because then these same bearsh will sell again. But for now i expect some more recovery.
RUB returns some lost positions due to massive profit taking since 86.00 has been reached. The price then dropped almost 10 USD to 76.00. Below 79.00 more profit taking is possible, but once above 80.70 upside will be restarted. Sideways trade is possible between 78.90 and 80.10.

From: http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/todays-forex-forecast/2016/01/25/

Friday, January 22, 2016

Support & Resistance for EURGBP

R5 0.7875 2015 high
R4 0.7830 13 Jan 2015 high
R3 0.7800 figure, Nov 2014 low
R2 0.7766 * Sep 2014 low
R1 0.7700 figure
S1 0.7617 21 Jan low
S2 0.7583 * 19 Jan low
S3 0.7555 11 Jan high
S4 0.7500 * figure
S5 0.7443 * 11 Jan low

Rotating lower from the 0.7745/66 resistance to reach 0.7617 low. Below this will see scope to the 0.7600 level then the 0.7583 support and where break will swing focus lower to correct the strong up-leg seen in the new year to the 0.7500 level. Resistance now at the 0.7700 level then 0.7745/66 area.

Thursday, January 21, 2016

Support & Resistance for USD/JPY

R5 119.70 5 Jan high
R4 118.83 * 8 Jan high
R3 118.38 * 13 Jan high
R2 118.11 * 19 Jan high
R1 117.69 20 Jan high

S1 116.51 15 Jan low
S2 115.98 20 Jan low
S3 115.86 * Jan 2015 yr low
S4 115.57 * Dec 2014 low
S5 115.31 13 Nov 14 low

Staging recovery from the 115.98 low though the upside still limited and only rally to clear the 118.00/38 resistance will fade the downside pressure. Below the 116.00 level will expose important support at the 115.86/57 lows, below which will trigger a 13-mth top pattern and see deeper decline.

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Support & Resistance for EUR/USD

R5 1.1140 23 Oct high
R4 1.1105 23 Sep low
R3 1.1087 * 3 Sep low, break
R2 1.1060 * 15 Dec high
R1 1.0993 28 Dec high

S1 1.0855 15 Jan low
S2 1.0835 14 Jan low
S3 1.0805 * 13 Jan low
S4 1.0771 7 Jan low
S5 1.0711 * 5 Jan low

Extending bounce from the 1.0860 low and see scope to retest the 1.0985/93 highs. Lift over these and the 1.1000 level will see return to the 1.1060, Dec high. Support now at 1.0855 then the 1.0835/05 area. Only below the 1.0800 level will weaken and return focus to the 1.0711 low


Monday, January 18, 2016

Support & Resistance for GBP/USD

R5 1.4445 14 Jan 2016 high
R4 1.4428 15 Jan 2016 high
R3 1.4352 12 Jan 2016 low
R2 1.4325 intraday level
R1 1.4280 intraday level

S1 1.4228 ** 20 May 2010 low
S2 1.4110 * 30 Mar 2009 low
S3 1.4000 figure
S4 1.3958 2 Mar 2009 low
S5 1.3844 * 18 Mar 2009 low

View unchanged from this morning with the sharp decline last Friday below the 1.4352 support setting the bigger downmove from 1.4970 high back in motion with bears now eyeing lower support at 1.4228 ahead of 1.4110. Intraday trade to remain suppressive.


Sunday, January 17, 2016

Friday, January 15, 2016

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE FOR EUR/USD

R5 1.1060 * 15 Dec high
R4 1.0993 * 28 Dec high
R3 1.0970 * 11 Jan high
R2 1.0943 14 Jan high
R1 1.0900 figure

S1 1.0800 * figure
S2 1.0771 7 Jan low
S3 1.0711 * 5 Jan low
S4 1.0689 25 Nov high
S5 1.0638 27 Nov high

Push above the 1.0900 level saw the upside checked at the 1.0940/46 and keep resistance at 1.0970/93 out of reach. More ranging action seen while the caps and break needed to see strength back to retest 1.1060 high. Support is at the 1.0800 level and break needed to return focus to 1.0711 low.

How to trade support & resistance levels

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Support & Resistance for GBP/USD (SIGNAL)

R5 1.4663 4 Jan low
R4 1.4645 * 8 Jan high
R3 1.4600 * figure
R2 1.4534 7 Jan low
R1 1.4494 11 Jan low

S1 1.4352 12 Jan low
S2 1.4346 * 8 Jun 2010 low
S3 1.4260 25 May 2010 low
S4 1.4228 * 2010 low
S5 1.4110 * 30 Mar 2009 low

 Struggling to hold the 1.4400 level and break here keep focus on the downside for retest of the 1.4352 low. Break here will see potential to 1.4260 then the 1.4228, 2010 low. Recent low at 1.4494 and 1.4534 now reverts to resistance and lift over these needed to trigger stronger recovery to
retrace steep drop from the Dec high.

Short at 1.4550, stop at 1.4850, profit target at 1.4250

Short at 1.4650, stop at 1.4850, profit target at 1.4250


Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Support & Resistance for USD/CHF

R5 1.0266 3 Dec high
R4 1.0240 * Jan 2015 high
R3 1.0200 figure
R2 1.0125 * 5 Jan high
R1 1.0073 intraday level

S1 0.9966 12 Jan low
S2 0.9881 * 11 Jan low
S3 0.9853 * 24 Dec low
S4 0.9811 16 Dec low
S5 0.9786 * 14 Dec low

Bounce from the 0.9881 low to regain parity level seeing follow-through above the 1.0052 resistance. This clears the way for return above the 1.0100 level to retest the 1.0125 high. Bullish structure see support now at the 0.9966 then the 0.9923 and 0.9881 lows.

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Support & Resistance for GBP/USD

R5 1.4786 29 Dec low
R4 1.4727 31 Dec low
R3 1.4663 4 Jan low
R2 1.4645 * 8 Jan high
R1 1.4600 figure

S1 1.4494 11 Jan low
S2 1.4394 9 Jun 2010 low
S3 1.4346 * 8 Jun 2010 low
S4 1.4260 25 May 2010 low
S5 1.4228 * 20 May 2010 low

Pressure stays on the downside and rejection from the 1.4604 high yesterday see scope to retest the 1.4500 level then the 1.4494 low. Clear break here will see further decline to 1.4394 and 1.4346 then the 1.4228, 2010 low. Would need lift over the 1.4600 level and 1.4645 ease downside pressure and see stronger bounce.

Monday, January 11, 2016

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE FOR EUR/USD

R5 1.1140 23 Oct high
R4 1.1087 * Sep low, break
R3 1.1060 * 15 Dec high
R2 1.1045 200-day MA
R1 1.0993 * 28 Dec high

S1 1.0853 intraday level
S2 1.0800 * figure
S3 1.0771 7 Jan low
S4 1.0711 * 5 Jan low
S5 1.0689 25 Nov high

Strong start to the week seeing extension of the rally from 1.0711 low last week with break above the 1.0940/46 area shifting focus to the 1.1000 level next. Beyond this will see the 200-day MA coming into play at 1.1045 then strong resistance area at 1.1060/87. Support now at the 1.0853 then 1.0800 level.

Friday, January 8, 2016

Support & Resistance for GBP/USD

For today

R5 - 1.4849 * 30 Dec high
R4 - 1.4816 4 Jan 2016 high
R3 - 1.4786 29 Dec low
R2 - 1.4726 5 Jan 2016 high
R1 - 1.4682 6 Jan high
S1 - 1.4556 intraday level
S2 - 1.4534 7 Jan 2016 low
S3 - 1.4505 11 Jun 2010 low
S4 - 1.4394 9 Jun 2010 low
S5 - 1.4346 * 8 Jun 2010 low

Bullish implication of Hammer set last session and bull-divergence on daily Stochastic are making bears wary at current depth and keeping intraday trade on a firmer tone during intraday trading and push to 1.4682 resistance will help garner upside momentum

Thursday, January 7, 2016

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE FOR EUR/USD

R5 - 1.1010 16 Dec high
R4 - 1.0993 * 28 Dec high
R3 - 1.0946 * 4 Jan high
R2 - 1.0900 figure
R1 - 1.0853 31 Dec low

S1 - 1.0773 intraday level
S2 - 1.0711 * 5 Jan low
S3 - 1.0689 25 Nov high
S4 - 1.0638 27 Nov high
S5 - 1.0600 figure

Recovery from the 1.0711/16 lows to regain the 1.0800 level fades downside pressure and triggers stronger push towards the 1.0853 resistance. Beyond this will see scope to retest the 1.0900 level and 1.0946 high. Support now at 1.0773 then the 1.0711 low.

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE FOR EUR/USD (SIGNAL)

For today

R4 - 1.0992 / R3 - 1.0956 / R2 - 1.0944 / R1 - 1.0839
SPOT 1.0822
S1 - 1.0781 / S2 - 1.0763 / S3 - 1.0689 / S4 - 1.0638  

LONG AT 1.0750 FOR 1.0950; STOP AT 1.0638

Monday, January 4, 2016

Happy and profitable year 2016

Wish you all a highly profitable Happy New Year 2016!!!I will start with some quick overview of this year's FOREX future outlook. FED has already started rising the interest rate and this process will continue through this year and the expectations are for it to reach around 1.35% by the end of this year. It is also expected USD to gain strength against all major currencies except GBP. The biggest loosers are expected to be AUD and NZD. However i must say that these are not my expectetions, but these are mostly rumors. In fact the real picture for the EUR will be more bearish than bullish this year. Parity with dollar is closer than ever and will become reality in a few months. I expect the EUR to drop below 1.00 this year too. For now i can figure out 0.96 as a potential target.Let's take now a look over the charts:EUR will look for support at 1.0820, first resistance comes at 1.0880, then 1.0920, and the bearish outlook will be reversed obly above 1.0945. On the other side a drop below 1.0800 will start a fresh downside move to 1.0690 and 1.0590. Then the pair will look for support around 1.0540 which was the last month's bottom.GOLD will continue to loose price however some quick jumps to 1072 are possible. Gold is into a downside trend which can be seen on Weekly and Monthly. Daily chart shows some consolidation to bearish move. Support area is 1050. For now every jump will be used to open short positions at a better price. Jumps over 1085 are not expected for now as my indicators keep telling me.NZD bounced back from the 0.6880 resistance but still doesn't give up with the idea to reach and attack the main resistance at 0.6950. If we have a clear break there the move will continue to 0.71. NZD will rely on two main supports, the first one is 0.6780 and the second one is 0.6760. if the second one is broken then a 100 pips drop will follow and maybe more.AUD price is locked in a 100 pips range between 0.7240 and 0.7340. It is not clear enough what direction will develop so you'd better stay away until one of the above is broken.JPY met some problems at 123.00-124.00 area, and unhappyly returned back to 120.00 support. Once below 120.00 the pair will target 118.50 support.GBP has finished last month of 2015 with a signficant slide, we had a big slide in november 2015 too. There is a support at 1.4650 which may stop the continuous slide. On all time frames the pair is extremely bearish and more slide is expected soon.RUB has a high volatility during the last day of 2015. The pair remains bullish above 70.00. Once above 73.50 you may enter LONG for 75.00 and above. Below 69.50 the pair will look for support at 67.50, but this is the less possible scenario for now.
Good luck!!!

http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/todays-forex-forecast/2016/01/03/