Monday, September 21, 2015

EUR is trying to recover this week after Greek elections

Last Friday EUR has dropped from 1.1460 to 1.1280 ahead of elections in Greece. Today EUR has started the week with recovery and the first resistance coming is 1.1330, the second one is 1.1365. Only above the second we shall attack last Friday's top. Later today we have the Deutsche Bundesbank monthly statement which is not expected to cause any serious volatility. Eurozone's consumer confidence is the most important news on Tuesday.  On Wednesday some PMI data and mr.Draghi speeks. For the last two days of the week i expect some dollar domination, and downside move for the EUR.
GOLD has started recovery and it was doing pretty well before reaching the Daily Senkou Span B price of the negative cloud. However after some hesitation here i expect the upside to continue, but drops to 1120 support are still possible. Please note that below 1120 bullish recovery is in danger and below 1112 it will be completely destroyed.
NZD has tested again 0.6240 support and for now it seems good enough to form a solid bottom and to start the process of recovery after the long slide down from 0.7740. You may try long from 0.6330 and short from 0.6500 as the pair has entered in a consolidation mode.
AUD has made two unsuccessful attempts to break the 0.7260-0.7280 resistance area so now it is quite possibe the pair to test the 0.7110 support before any new upside attempt. The possibility of breaking the support is also not too small, so be very careful. Above 0.7220 on H4 you may try small long, but place stop.
JPY has started a fresh process of recovery against the dollar, however today is a non working day in Japan and i expect of Tuesday the recovery of the JPY to continue to the fisrt support at 118.80. First resistance is 120.20 then 120.80. Only above 121.00 bearish outlook may be destroyed.
GBP/USD is making its way hard into the Weekly huge Ichimoku cloud and it won't escape drops to 1.5200 in the weeks ahead,maybe in October or November. The pair now desperately is trying to stay above 1.5500,because breaking below will mean start of the downside wave. We are in a sideways trade mode right now in the range 1.5455-1.5565
GBP/JPY The pair is now locked inside the 186.00-186.30 area. You have to allow it to escape this and then enter depending on which side this area has been broken. Next resistance is at 186.70, and below 186.00 next support is 185.70, below which more downside is expected.
RUB is currently targeting 64.10 support but i expect it to stop the downside move and to reverse to the upside. It is not impossible to test the second support at 62.00 but this will be short lived and the pair is going to make a quick recovery to the upside back to 64.50. i am expecting to end this week around and above 67.00